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U.N. report predicts water shortages, extinctions, rising seas
DARREN SAMUELSOHN, GREENWIRE, 04/06/07
BRUSSELS — Global warming will parch large swaths of the Earth and threaten the existence of up to 30 percent of its animals and plants, a United Nations scientific panel warned in a report released today.
About 1 billion people will be affected by water shortages because of declining snow cover on land now used by one-sixth of the world's population, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report says.
While all continents are expected to experience climate change's effects, the report points to Africa as the "most vulnerable" because of water shortages, drought and rising seas. Africa lacks resources to adapt to such troubles on its own, the report says.
North America cities will see stronger and longer heat waves, plagues of insects and diseases and rising risks of forest fires, the report says. But larger amounts of rainfall could yield up to a 20 percent increase in the continent's agriculture harvests.
Worldwide, food production is projected to increase as temperatures rise by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, but that will change if warming goes beyond that.
More than 400 scientists wrote the regional assessment report, which was released today in summary form after a grueling week of line-by-line edits by government officials from 45 nations, including the United States, China and Russia.
While the effort had its share of controversy, several of the report's authors heralded the 23-page "Summary for Policymakers" and the larger 1,572-page package as a breakthrough in assessing the close-up effects of climate change. The report relies on about 75 studies that collect data from more than 29,000 research points around the world — mostly in the Northern Hemisphere.
"For the first time we're no longer arm waving with models that this is happening," Martin Parry, a key negotiator, told reporters here. "This is empirical information on the ground. We can measure it."
Scientists protest changes
The report — the second of a four-part series due this year from IPCC — almost didn't make it into final form.
During a review session that began yesterday and continued until this morning, two U.S. researchers and a glacial expert from Chile filed a formal protest after China and Saudi Arabia raised doubts about the level of scientific certainty that should be ascribed to global warming's regional effects. The two countries are home to some of the world's most abundant coal and oil reserves, respectively.
Because the report requires consensus among its government reviewers, there were successful last-minute efforts to remove language saying scientists were 80 percent confident that human-caused emissions were causing regional changes to the Earth's ecosystems, including glacial melt and rock avalanches.
Reviewers also lopped off parts of a graphic that highlights the effects from global warming projected with every rise of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
Cynthia Rosenzweg, a research scientist at the Goddard Center for Space Studies in New York, said she walked out of the talks early this morning out of frustration. Her colleague, David Karoly, a meteorologist at the University of Oklahoma, blamed politics for the final changes.
"No other country appeared to be willing to force the hands of essentially Saudi Arabia and China to accept that the scientific evidence supports that," Karoly said in an interview.
Several scientists also spoke up for their colleagues.
"Overall, most of it was alright," said Stephen Schneider, a Stanford University biologist. "There was just some really unusually egregious examples when phony science was used as an excuse to cover national politics. And that just gets the dander up on scientists."
Joel Smith, vice president of Stratus Consulting Inc., of Boulder, Colo., questioned the need for the changes given the five years of studies and peer review that went into earlier drafts of the document.
"It shouldn't come as any surprise that species are located in climate zones where glaciers melt, where runoff changes," Smith said. "To me, it's striking. Why would countries object over something that's almost obvious? They've managed to make it a controversy."
"We're going forward'
The fighting caused a brief delay in the final report's release, forcing the IPCC chairman to address more than 150 anxious journalists in the lobby of the European Commission's headquarters. "I'm wearing the suit I wore yesterday," explained Rajendra Pachauri, standing on a chair to be seen above the TV cameras. "I've been sitting in a chair all night."
Later, Rosenzweg and Kalory told reporters they were satisfied with the final document — even if it doesn't have a specific percentage of confidence.
"What happened last night is over," said Rosenzweg. "We're going forward. It was a true resolution because the underlying documents don't change."
Others downplayed the dispute, explaining that controversy is bound to occur after long hours of face-to-face talks.
"People fighting, it's a normal thing," explained Osvaldo Canziani, the co-chair of WGII
Thomas Wilbanks, another lead author and a corporate research fellow at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, said scientists are apt to outline the risks even if they don't have all the complete data.
"Everybody is very sensitive to what can you say and how confident can you be," Wilbanks said. "Scientists tend to believe what they say. Sometimes governments question levels of confidence. I think both perspectives are valid."
Groups urge action
Debate now begins on whether the IPCC document will have the same type of wide-ranging effect on policy seen from past versions of the report. The first study in 1990 helped produce the underlying U.N. Framework on Climate Change, and a report five years later is often credited with spawning the Kyoto Protocol.
Environmental groups said the latest IPCC report will wake up lawmakers worldwide and in turn drive government action to reduce emissions.
"It's kind of an apocalyptic view of what life is going to be like if we don't do something about it," said Stephanie Tunmore, a London-based campaigner at Greenpeace International.
Larry Schweiger, president of the National Wildlife Federation in Washington, D.C., issued a statement that called on the United States to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2 percent per year through 2020.
"America must choose between a fundamentally different planet or a fundamentally different energy future that breaks our oil addiction and aggressively opens the path to alternatives and renewables," Schweiger said.
But the White House signaled no interest in changing policies (see related story below).
In Brussels, some of the report's key figures stressed that the report shows a need for both emission reductions and better preparations.
"Mitigation may work in the long term, but in the near and medium term, adaptation will be vital," said Parry, the IPCC working group co-chair. "The sooner we get on that the better."
Gary Yohe, an economics professor from Wesleyan University, said in an interview he hoped the report would spur the world's finance ministers to entrench climate change into their development and investment plans.
Scientists are also working on a third section of the report due May 4 in Bangkok that will explore options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate global warming. A final synthesis report of the first three sections is scheduled for release Nov. 16 in Valencia, Spain.
U.N. officials and scientists are scheduled to fan out for regional press briefings on the latest report starting April 10. The North American press event — featuring Rosenzweg, Princeton's Michael Oppenheimer and Heinz Center Vice President Anthony Janetos — is scheduled for April 16 in Washington.
Click here to read the report summary.
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